A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
